Centre-right wins narrow victory // Far-right Chega surges to become political force
Portuguese news in English on Tuesday, March 11, 2024.
Note: I’m going to be on vacation for the next two weeks so I won’t be sending out the regular newsletter. However, I’ll share a short post when more is clear about the next government.
Democratic Alliance wins narrow victory
Luís Montenegro’s Democratic Alliance (AD) has claimed victory in the national elections by the narrowest of margins, Público reports. At the end of a long night of counting on Sunday, the centre-right coalition finished with 79 seats in the 230-seat Assembly of the Republic and 28.66% of the vote, just ahead of the incumbent Socialist Party (PS) with 77 seats and 28.77%. PS leader Pedro Nuno Santos admitted defeat, consigning his party to opposition even before results of the remaining four seats based on international vote counting becoming known on March 20.
The election was a collapse for the political centre as the two major parties failed to garner 60% of the vote together, down from more than 85% two years ago, ceding space to far-right Chega (“Enough”) and a few smaller left-wing parties. It was also the best voter turnout since 1995, with just shy of two-thirds of voters handing in a ballot, Público reports.
Uncertainty over new government
President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa now faces a complex situation, Público reports, as Montenegro seeks to form a stable government. The AD and Social Democratic Party (PSD) leader repeated his promise not to partner with Chega — which claimed 48 seats — effectively putting majority government out of reach. Montenegro said he would seek “dialog and consultation” between leaders and parties and called on all parties to help make a stable government possible. Nuno Santos said his Socialist Party would form opposition and would not be a “crutch” in any minority government, nor pass a PSD budget. That means even with Montenegro’s “no means no” attitude to governing with Chega, the radical populist party will have a fundamental role. Half a century on from the April 25 Carnation Revolution, a new cycle of Portuguese democracy has begun.
Even with the early admission of defeat, it will be some time before there’s a new government. Marcelo will start meeting today with all the parties and coalitions with parliamentary representation in a process lasting until the 20th, Diário de Notícias reports. The head of state will work his way from the party with the least MPs, People-Animals-Nature (PAN), through to AD, before nominating a prime minister. Given the timing of Easter and the various constitutional steps that need to take place after that, the newly elected MPs will likely not take their places until the start of April, Público reports.
Far-right Chega surges to become potent political force
Chega was one of Sunday’s big winners with a huge surge in popularity, going from 12 seats to 48 on the back of more than 1 million votes (roughly 18%) nationally, Público reports. Leader André Ventura, who took to the stage celebrating a “historic day” and the “end of two-party rule”, now wants only one thing, a government that includes his party. Despite Montenegro’s repeated promises not to collaborate with him, Ventura argued voters had given Chega and PSD an effective right-wing majority and they would be “irresponsible” not to use it to form government.
Oxford University political scientist Vicente Valentim told Público the radical right’s rapid rise followed a pattern seen across Europe. He said these sorts of parties could grow much more quickly than others because lots of people who vote for far-right parties already had these ideas in private but feared social sanction if they expressed them. It was easy to grow because they didn’t need to change anyone’s minds, just grab onto what’s already there, he said, positing that it would be harder for Chega to grow from here.
A much smaller far-right party also had a huge surge in popularity, after being accused of stealing votes from centre-right AD, Público reports. The National Democratic Alternative (ADN), whose leader supports mandatory military service and denies Covid-19 and the climate crisis, received more than 100,000 votes nationally, almost 10 times more than in 2022. AD went so far as to ask the electoral commission to clear things up after “innumerable reports” of electors asking for another voting card after mixing up the parties. The commission said these cases of confusion were “very isolated”. The votes weren’t enough to win any seats. Liberal Initiative picked up eight seats, Left Bloc grabbed five, Livre (“Free”) won four and PAN won a single seat.
Other reading, in English
Portugal's centre-right prepares to rule, far-right warns of instability Reuters
Portugal's election leaves the country uncertain of its future but heartens Europe's radical right Associated Press
OPINION: Whoever forms Portugal’s government, this is a victory for the far right. Will Europe ever learn? The Guardian
In brief
Climate crisis? The emergency that wasn't seen on the campaign trail. Apart from the shock of the moment when an activist threw green paint at Montenegro, environmental questions were essentially off the table. (Público)
Worldcoin promises dozens of euros for looking into its sphere. Is it safe? More than 300,000 people in Portugal have shared their iris data with the crypto start-up. The National Data Protection Commission is investigating, in part because of the possible collection of minors’ details. (Público) (More from the New York Times in English)
Parish with highest number of nationalities making life hard for immigrants. Since February 9, the Junta de Freguesia de Arroios will only issue an atestado de residência (certificate of residence) to those with a título de residência (residence card). The problem is to get the card, you need to get the atestado de residência, like a snake eating its tail, one person said. (Diário de Notícias)
On a lighter note
There’s been a monster snowfall (by Portuguese standards), on Serra da Estrela and other high points in the north. Social media pages throughout the region are covered with images and videos of the fluffy white stuff so rarely seen here in such great quantities. Observador reported the conditions closed a range of roads over the weekend and snow report sights reported falls of up to half a metre across three days, believed to be the most since 2018. The road up to the tower at the top of continental Portugal’s highest peak was still closed today and, judging by some pictures, would be for a while.
If you’re more of a summer creature, the island of Porto Santo, in Madeira, has been named Europe’s best beach destination for the first time at the World Travel Awards, Diário de Notícias reports.