'Great Lockdown' to cut GDP by 8%, and PM says restrictions shouldn't be eased before May
English language coronavirus news in Portugal on April 14, 2020.
We seem to be in a bit of a holding pattern at the moment. For the fourth day in a row, we have between 300-600 new confirmed cases and another 30-35 deaths. Hopefully those numbers start to fall soon. For some global context, Johns Hopkins’ excellent tracking tool shows Portugal with the 16th highest number of confirmed cases in the world. That’s just below Russia and Brazil, two countries that until recently had fewer cases than Portugal but are suffering much worse daily increases.
Restrictions shouldn’t be eased before May, PM says
Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa has shared some thoughts on future changes to state of emergency restrictions, saying they shouldn’t be eased before May at the earliest. In an interview with Observador, he doesn’t give many details beyond saying any eventual changes will have to be “gradual and progressive” and may vary from region to region. Those variations would depend on the severity of the outbreak and the age of the population in any particular region.
The PM says containment measures of some sort must stay in place until there’s a vaccine and that they will be tougher for those at more risk from the virus, such as old people. “It’s not the time to give the wrong signal and ease measures,” Diário de Notícias quotes him as saying.
In the same Observador interview he strikes a more positive note on the subject of summer holidays. He believes it will be possible to enjoy them but warns people not to book anything yet and suggests staying inside Portugal to avoid the risk of border closures and flight cancellations.
“Great Lockdown” to hit Portugal worse than euro debt crisis
The International Monetary Fund has predicted Portugal’s GDP will fall 8% on the back of the pandemic, Público reports. That’s almost twice as bad as 2012, the year the debt crisis austerity measures hit hardest. It’s the fifth-worst predicted fall in Europe, on par with Spain and Slovenia and behind Greece and Italy, with 10% and 9.1%. The Bank of Portugal last month predicted a drop of between 3.7% and 5.7%.
Finance Minister Mário Centeno predicts a GDP contraction of 6.5% for every 30 working days that activity is restrained like the current situation. He expects the “unimaginable shock” to blow out the deficit by about €6 billion euros.In global terms, the IMF predicts a GDP fall of 3% thanks to the “Great Lockdown” with a 7.5% drop across the eurozone, the worst since the Great Depression. Unfortunately, there are “severe risks of a worse result”. Here’s a Reuters report in English.
Graph: A record negative year for the Portuguese economy
In brief
More than 200 companies want to make masks for community use. Some are ready to start this week but the list hasn’t been released yet.
A quarter of students didn't do their homework during confinement, according to an inquiry by the Observatory of Education and Training Policies
On a lighter note
One way we can help tackle the economic doom and gloom is to support Portuguese businesses that are staying open safely and trying to innovate. You can feel good about yourself just by buying some tasty food. Diário de Notícias speaks with a few businesses that have managed to change their business model relatively successfully in these tough times. There’s Pigmeu, the Campo de Ourique restaurant that’s turned itself into an online market for fruit, vegetables and other goods on top of offering takeaway food - following the example of Comida Independente. DN also mentions a delivery initiative servicing the restaurants of chefs Justa Nobre (O Nobre), Vítor Sobral (Tasca da Esquina, A Peixaria da Esquina, O Talho da Esquina, O Balcão da Esquina, A Padaria da Esquina), Vasco Gallego (XL) and others.