Lockdown expected on Thursday // ‘Rapid change’ in disease spread over one week
Portuguese news in English on January 11, 2020.
By the numbers
We unfortunately seem to have reached a more deadly stage of the pandemic, with more than 100 deaths a day for the past three days. Things are also getting worse in the hospitals, with new records set for both ward and intensive care occupancy for the past three consecutive days. In terms of new cases, yesterday was a slight decrease after four days in a row with close to 10,000 cases a day. We’ve also been seeing Lisbon and the Tejo Valley almost exactly matching the North as the region with the most confirmed cases over the past week.
Lockdown expected on Thursday
Things appear to be moving fairly inevitably towards a strict lockdown aimed at slowing the spread of the coronavirus. The government is yet to make any official announcement but Público is predicting a new lockdown very similar to what we experienced in March and April — but with schools remaining open — to come into force on Thursday, January 14. The newspaper believes the Council of Ministers will approve the exact restrictions on Wednesday afternoon, following the Assembly of the Republic’s authorisations so the President can extend the state of emergency. At the weekend, Minister of State for the Presidency Mariana Vieira da Silva said there was “great consensus” among party leaders that more measures were needed. In an interview with Diário de Notícias, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa said it was thought this week would bring a much stronger lockdown.
Given the new restrictions are expected to be announced on Thursday, I’ll be sending the newsletter either Wednesday evening or Thursday morning, depending on timing.
‘Rapid change’ in disease spread over one week
The official analysis confirms what we’ve been able to see in the daily figures, a “rapid change in the epidemiological situation”, Diário de Notícias reports. After sitting below 1 from the middle of November until Christmas Day, the R(t) number soared to 1.19 in just six days, Dr Ricardo Jorge National Health Institute figures revealed. The BBC has an explainer on R here but it's essentially the number of people the average person infects, so an R below 1 indicates the spread of the disease is slowing, while if it’s above 1 it’s spreading faster. The numbers are only comparable to the November peak and the first wave earlier in the year, with a “growing trend of new cases on a national level, in all regions”: North (1.15), na Centre (1.23) Lisbon and Tejo Valley (1,21), Alentejo (1.21), Algarve (1.29). On a more easily understood measure, the average number of daily cases last week was 8062, up from 4689 from December 28 to January 3. Public health officials are launching an appeal for more workers as contact tracers in the Lisbon and Tejo Valley are overwhelmed, Diário de Notícias reported. The Portuguese Association of Public Health Doctors said with “thousands” of outstanding follow ups it was “not possible to break transmission chains”.
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In brief
Presidential elections: Older people can vote early without leaving nursing homes. The pandemic has forced some changes to the national vote on January 24, including a push for early voting. (Diário de Notícias)
Portuguese monastery cluster infects 14 of 16 nuns. It’s surprising because the nuns live in the monastery without contact with the outside world. (Diário de Notícias)
More than 85,000 waited longer than the acceptable time for surgery in November (Público)
Mercury found in pregnant women in Aveiro. In 6% of those studied, mercury levels were above the recommended concentration, with 36% at the maximum allowable level. (Diário de Notícias)
On a lighter note
In the spirit of turning over a new leaf, Time Out is highlighting some of the big projects due to finish up in Lisbon this year. It’s nice to know that the redevelopment of the riverfront between Cais do Sodré and Santa Apolónia is due to finish up, and that there’ll be more neighbourhood squares, urban gardens and countdown timers at traffic lights. But perhaps the most momentous (or unbelievable) is the long delayed reopening of the Arroios metro station, due for September 2021. Yes, this whole description is just an excuse to share one of my favourite Portugal memes.
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