What Trump tariffs would mean for Portugal, from avocados to steel // Separate tourist queue for Lisbon public transport?

Portuguese news in English on Tuesday, February 11, 2025.

What Trump tariffs would mean for Portugal, from avocados to steel

If US President Donald Trump goes ahead with threatened broad tariffs against European Union countries, it would likely worsen inflation in the EU and Portugal and dampen economic growth on both sides of the Atlantic, Expresso reports. The US is Portugal’s fourth-largest export destination (behind Spain, France and Germany), buying €4.93 billion in goods from January to November last year (the latest available figures), or 6.7% of Portuguese exports. That’s more than twice as much as what Portugal imports from America.

But any potential impact is difficult to estimate, Público reports, with widely varying potential consequences by industry. Out of 2500 product categories, only about 60 are worth more than €100,000 and make more than 50% of sales to the US. Of those, exports of light oils and petroleum derivatives, and unpackaged medications were both worth almost €1 billion each, representing a little more than a third of total Portuguese exports.

Trump’s planned 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium could also affect Portuguese exports worth about €1 billion, Expresso reports, but only if they’re applied to finished products and not just raw materials.

Even if the EU isn’t hit by the import taxes, there could still be flow-on effects for Portugal thanks to currently delayed tariffs on Mexico. If those taxed come into place and hit demand for Mexican avocados, that could increase availability in Europe and drive down prices in Europe, Expresso reports. But it could also increase demand from the US for European avocados, of which Portugal is the largest producer per capita, driving up prices. In short, nobody really knows. In 2023, Portugal imported €25 million worth of avocados from countries such as Mexico, Peru, Chile and Brazil and exported €32 million worth. You can read an explainer about the EU’s options for reacting to tariffs from Reuters in English.

Why has this newsletter changed? Read more here.